Probability Foundations

Distributions, expectation, Bayes and maximum likelihood — the vocabulary every loss function is written in.

Module 01.3 · Beginner
Free

10h · 7 lessons · 1 challenge

About this module

Cross-entropy is a likelihood. Regularization is a prior. Dropout is a random variable. This module gives you the probability to see loss functions as the statistical statements they are, instead of formulas to memorize.

It ends with maximum likelihood estimation, which is where the maths stops being background and starts being the derivation of every objective you will use for the rest of the course.

After this module you can

7 lessons

Lesson 1
Sample spaces, events and conditional probability
Kind
Concept
Length
45 min
Lesson 2
Bayes rule and the base rate trap
Kind
Concept
Length
50 min
Lesson 3
Bayes Duel: beat your intuition on medical tests
Kind
Interactive
Length
25 min
Lesson 4
Random variables, expectation and variance
Kind
Concept
Length
50 min
Lesson 5
The distributions that matter, and where each appears
Kind
Concept
Length
55 min
Lesson 6
Maximum likelihood, and cross-entropy falling out of it
Kind
Concept
Length
60 min
Lesson 7
Checkpoint: name that likelihood
Kind
Checkpoint
Length
25 min

The challenge: Bayes Duel

Rapid-fire posterior estimates against a clock and against other learners. Points for calibration, not just for being right.

Worth 350 XP.

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